Saturday 3 June 2017

How can you get out the vote?

Democracy needs a lot of things to operate effectively, but the most obvious seems to be people to vote. 
Proper political parties have a ground operation that is active all year around knocking on doors and making contact with the electorate that they either serve or seek to serve[1]. Amongst the many questions that those parties will be asking as they go door knocking is whether they support that particular party or not - the classic "can i count on your support at the next election?". That answer, replicated across the constituency, gives data to use. It gives a good indication of how people will vote throughout a given ward[2]. If someone has pledged to vote for you, then that means that not only have they said they support your party but they also say they will vote for the party. As turnout is so important and the government of the day focus all their attention on certain demographics - it is clear that supporters are not always the same as voters. 
The GOTV, or “get out the vote” operation is something you may have unwittingly noticed at the polling station but like an iceberg, that is just the tip of a deeply submerged plan. 



Telling

Tellers are those people outside the polling station with a scrap of paper and a pen that will often ask for your electoral number and note that down. They are outside the polling station as they cannot interfere with the station itself. The people administering the polling station must be impartial and there are strict instructions to not in any way persuade you to vote. The tellers are, however, party specific so you may be wondering what they are for. They can't persuade (this also should include the rosette that tellers even wear. They cannot ask you to vote for a party so a rosette labelled Labour is OK but Vote Labour - an instruction, is not) you and they can't ask you how you voted so what is their purpose? Why would they want your electoral number? 



Command Centre

The telling operation works in conjunction with other parts of the election day ground operation run from base and the tellers pass those numbers back to base where the tellers from each polling district can also send data. Those numbers are cross-referenced with the contact data to see whether the "pledges" have been out to vote. The number of people that can vote is known so the operation knows that x thousand are able to vote. The telling operation gives live (or close to live depending on how quickly the tellers can collate numbers) data on y thousand people that have voted. Cross-referencing the electoral numbers against the pledged votes means that the operation can also have a good indication of how many votes (z) it can rely on that have been cast. It can only ever be an indication as you never know how people have voted in the security of the ballot box. The UK has a secret ballot system so people that profess to vote in one way can very much actually vote in a different way. This "shy" voter phenomenon is one of the reasons why, over the last few years, Labour polling has been stronger than their actual performance and the Conservatives have had better elections that their polling suggests. The Shy Tory phenomenon is hypothesised to be where people are so ashamed of themselves for wanting to be more selfish than they actually want others to think they are - which extends even to speaking to strangers on the phone when polled. This is also thought to be a factor in the eventual surprise in the EU referendum of 2016 as people weren't feeling comfortable to say different to what those around them did. The Conservative party have traditionally done better with lower turnout for myriad reasons but the recent methods used by the Conservative party have been increasingly obvious to keep the numbers of voters lower. This has mainly involved making it harder to register on the electoral roll[3] and although most parties have urged people to register, the government party of the day have been conspicuous in not reminding people. 


Door knocking 
So x, y and z makes it such that you get an idea of turnout as it progresses in the day and if your pledged votes are coming in. What can you do with such data? Well, this is where some foot soldiers help as you can go and remind people to vote. For reasons that don't fully make sense, you can't campaign on this day so this process of chasing down your own votes is the finishing off of a job that is almost complete but it needs to be done. It also means that you only ask people if they have voted rather than any other questions which means there is less opportunity for aggressive behaviour (this is also a good time to flag up potential issues to elected politicians and I have noted down, for our councillors to follow up, where residents have asked for help on an issue or dangerous situations) . I have also been involved in helping with transport to the polling station although it must be clarified that this can still not be only for those that vote in a certain way. When I have done this, it has always been as a result of contact by the councillor in the area asking if they want help. I'm proud that this help is given too, it is not efficient due to the time taken but it is incredibly heartening to help people exercise their democratic rights. I mean, they can use a postal vote too, but I rather like the act of voting and I hope others do too. 

As the day rolls on, the command centre will have an idea of how it is progressing and, if they decide to, can realign the resources appropriately. This may mean asking other groups to help or donating resource to other groups - this is an effective way of doing what you can and only really works if people believe in the same thing. Polling finishes at ten so you can make a call as to whether it is worth continuing or reallocating the time. 
Volunteers come in and out as they can to fit in with their day, some come with kids, some with friends but everyone with a sense of duty and belonging. 

I've found these days to be amongst the most important for me to be involved as you see the action, you see the fight and you feel, for some moments, a little bit of hope. I would highly recommend donating a little bit of your time to do this if you can, you might like it but you will be helping. Let's try and get turnout as high as we can.

1. And these should be the only options available to them
2. A constituency is made up of wards. For example, I live in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency which is represented by my MP. For Council elections, I am in the Kentish Town area made up of a number of wards. A councillor will generally, here, be responsible for a few wards which can constitute quite different demographic elements, as of course a given constituency does too.
3. There is decent evidence on how making it harder for those that are more geographically active in moving around has the effect of making it harder for non-conservatives more generally by affecting the younger generations more. This is thought to be another potential reason why the Brexit vote ended up as it did as the Conservative party had tried to lock in the older, more traditional voters and not the more open-minded progressive voters (generally).


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