The Count 2024 Episode 0

This “follows on” from the previous post about the count. But preceding the count was the canvassing. I get asked quite a bit about this and how it is to knock on the doors of strangers. And it is actually alright. People are generally not anywhere near as bad in person as they are behind a screen.Or they are but you don’t notice it as much as it is hidden behind politeness.

I am not a huge ”street” campaigner to be honest, and I prefer to be the “data guy” where I can but within the last year, leading up to the expected 2024 General Election, I did visit a few constituencies for “door knocking” sessions (see this blogpost on telling to see what some of this leads to). These were as follows and, as you can see, all but one were Conservative held seats and so were “battlegrounds” or “marginals”. It is also worth saying that in the one Labour seat, major campaigning was effectively blocked by shutting down the system^[1] that supported it as a prod to activists to go further afield. In fact, when looking for events for my postcode, the system suggested other constituencies in all cases and at all times including when there were events locally. This did definitely mean that we did not have access to the same number of activists as often “stronghold” seats would also have activists that would not want to, or be able to, go further afield.

Why did I go to these places?

I don’t particularly want to make political (policy) commentary here and my intention here is to show the difference in operational approach that may be the result of different strategic approaches.

So let us say, very simplistically, you have 100 activists. You may get 60 of them campaigning locally in a stronghold (S) and 40 of them going to marginals (M). So you get an increase in visibility and an increase in votes in both the stronghold and the marginal.

If you shut down the opportunity to stay local, you may get 0 locally and 60 in the marginal. So you have greater help where you think it is needed but a lower amount of help overall. So maybe you see an increase in the M seat and a decrease in the S seat. That may mean you win two seats.

I think that is more efficient in winning the vote but there is definitely an argument to say it is not considering all the externalities in such a simplistic model. And politics isn’t about winning to win but to win, effect change and stay in power.

The S seat has probably also got more untapped activists that might be able to grow your 100. The actual voters in an S seat may also note the lack of activity and remember that at the election and in the future reducing the strength. The M seat does have more space to grow into and the likelihood is that they don’t have as many activists to begin with so an extra 5 on 5 may be hugely noticed in a way that an extra 5 on 100 is not. In the “first past the post” system, you need to pass a threshold and any more than that is effectively unnecessary headroom. But you might lose the interest of 40 activists in a seat.

This is a little like goal difference in football and as a fan, I have seen big victories followed by narrow defeats so many times and thought “if only we could have spread the goals better”. But (topically) the Greek side in Euro 2004 did similar with efficient 1-0 victories to take you to the trophy. They were not able to effect change and stay in power… It was seen as an aberration and there have been no other (successful) countries wanting to follow that model.

I think this is a difference in the approaches of the two most recent leaders of the Labour Party and I am not making a judgement on which approach is correct or not. The “more activists and deep victory” approach is a people powered movement, Lots of people are involved and can be enthused by it all. The “fewer activists placed carefully” approach is about doing “more with less” and needs people that are enthused already as the whole movement will be less fun. In a nutshell, that is my experience of the approaches.

Locations canvassed

I went to a few constituencies but it is also worth noting that Britain is a very mixed up country and each constituency is made up of vastly different components and so the parts I visited may not be representative at all. I know that from visiting them but that may not be as clear to those reading a pithy little take and a 3 word review. Please note that the boundary changes mean that the maps are not exactly on the same boundaries but give a sense of it. Click the maps to see a better quality image of the deprivation measured in these constituencies to get a sense of the voter base.

[Con] Cities of London and Westminster

This was the first place I went of the actual campaign and we were in an area that might not be called traditionally Labour. The feedback here was not always positive but it was far more friendly than my previous visits to these kinds of areas. I would say it was neutral rather than hostile. To give an indication of the place, I was told that “no parent would vote for Labour” because of the policy around requiring private schools to pay tax like other similar businesses. One notable thing here is that many of the doors were inaccessible but you could ring at the gate and they would let you in or speak to you from the door. It was odd to hear people shouting in the street (effectively) that they were voting Labour in this neighbourhood. I also had a chat with one person that was quite irritated (and made that clear, but also clarified a few times that he was not with me personally) that people were chasing his vote now but had not spoken to him in years. This could be for a number of reasons but he was at least cognisant of the fact that I was from a neighbouring constituency and not in a position to be complained at. Speaking to people face to face is pretty disarming and the conversations are generally quite nice.

3WR: Money, Money, Money

Result: Labour MP - Rachel Blake

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001172

[Con] Finchley and Golders Green

I had not been here for a while but this was supposedly the seat with the most Jewish electorate in the country and so had been quite a target in previous elections for those wanting to make hay. This meant it was an oddly “local” election as in 2019, the Labour leader was consistently branded as anti-semitic and so it was expected to move quite differently to the underlying political movements. I also grew up locally although not in this constituency and so was familiar with the rhythm and bass of the place if not necessarily the melody. The atmosphere was good in the sessions with good humour and effort. The candidate was also known to me as she lives locally to me although she grew up in this constituency. My most notable conversation here was based on asking about whether Sarah was local (or local enough) as she lived about 4 miles away from the household I knocked at. I am hopeful that the person, who was going to complete her postal vote that evening, was able to use that conversation to make her decision - she did note that Sarah had been active in the community for many years. The conversation itself was fairly long and pleasant with the voter also commenting that it was nice to have people (meaning activists in general) showing an interest. Another notable interaction was someone telling me that I should not be campaigning for the Labour Party at all due to Gaza. It was a reminder that a constituency does not have one voice. I did go here a few times and each time, I was reminded that this was a summer election and we don’t have those often.

3WR: This feels nice

Result: Labour MP - Sarah Sackman

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001238

[Con] Hendon

This was a Barnet borough seat that I went to on a larger “action” day and even managed to persuade an acquaintance^[2] that lived locally to come along with her dad. As I did not really speak to many constituents and was running a board and helping some first-timers, I cannot say too much here. I was walking with the candidate though and it was impressive to see how many people he wanted to speak to. The level of effort and determination was pretty impressive and I really wish more of the electorate were aware of how hard some of these candidates work for these roles. And before the roles! The geography of the area around Hendon central seemed familiar although I had not been there before due to the suburbia feel to it. A place where it is simultaneously difficult and easy to lose yourself.

3WR: Keep it moving

Result: Labour MP - David Pinto-Duschinsky

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001279

[Con] Chipping Barnet

This was a seat I had spent a long time in over the years but not politically. In the miserable 2019 campaign, I remember coming out here in the rain to run a (paper) board out to very rude constituents. This was, again, the rudest constituency I found but there was also some politeness and positivity. I grew up in Chipping Barnet but there is an area between the M25 and the High Street which is almost unknown to me. It is an area to drive through and has many large houses - the kinds of places with names rather than numbers. This was a polling day visit and so traipsing around here where the housing was very low density and very rich felt inefficient to me. There were other areas which were more accessible but other people without access to cars had done those so I went to the very north of the constituency with one person that had a car. I had two notable interactions in this largely “against” area. One man decided to swear at me and told me that I should not be campaigning on polling day as it was not allowed. I was not sure if he had a different interpretation of the laws to every political party in the land but I did not find out which way he was voting. It left me a bit shaken and annoyed, to be honest but this is something that you just have to push yourself not to be too fussed by. I had seen worse. Another man, whom we had expected to be supportive, rushed over to me from across the road where he was doing something to his car to speak to me. This felt risky but when I asked him, he said he had surprisingly put the tick in the same box he had for 40 years. He was very pleasant though, and explained to me that he liked what he saw but found something against Angela Rayner. That he was impressed with her personally but could not imagine her speaking with foreign dignitaries like Macron (“but maybe Trump wasn't a good example!”). I know that there has been a Conservative campaign against her but this was the first I had heard of it. I think even he knew there was not much to it as he said she was actually very impressive. Anyway, he said good luck to me and let me carry on. Afterwards, when we got back in the car, he came over again and told me to have a glass of bubbly for him that evening! Again, the atmosphere was pretty pleasant.

3WR: Is this Barnet?

Result: Labour MP - Dan Tomlinson

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001169

[Con] Uxbridge and South Ruislip

I visited this seat in the previous year’s by-election but that was less than a year ago! That time was when the Conservatives kept banging on (inaccurately) about ULEZ and so, as it was pre-implementation, the scares were working. I knocked on a lot of doors of people that had compliant cars that did not want to vote for Labour because of the charge. And lots of people that did not seem overly concerned about poorer constituents in any other situation except where they would have to pay a charge for polluting the air. This was a long time ago now, and that particular by-election was not successful. That would come later.

3WR: Massive cars everywhere

Result: Labour MP - Danny Beales

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001558

[Lab] Holborn and St Pancras

A relatively “dull” canvass as this is a place I have been many times with little to learn - but a great way of getting into the swing and understanding the new software and approach. I absolutely love this constituency though with the varied feel across it and mini-communities hidden away in the estates. People were positive on the doorsteps but that was fairly early in the campaign. I have always told people that if they want to canvass, they should do so on safer ground first (such as this) so that they are not too stressed by it all. That will make them able to be more effective as it counts. I ended up in a chat with a person that was studying politics at university - their first political memory at all was seeing their parents seeming distraught at the Brexit result. That’s a sobering thought about the march of time.

3WR: Home Sweet Home

Result: Labour MP - Keir Starmer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001290

[Con] Corby and East Northamptonshire

This was an entirely new constituency for me and the type of constituency that I had not always been drawn to. Especially post-Brexit, I have been uncomfortable (see my thoughts on Brexit Day) about going to non-urban spaces (Corby itself has high and low-density areas) and have also suspected that having non-white London accents at the doorstep may be counter-productive. These sessions were different to those I had done before with drives required to get to the streets and lifts needed timed to train journeys.

I generally run boards and so stay less visible but I did have one longish interaction with a Labour/Reform voter that was undecided between the two parties. This started badly from his first response but it did continue into a conversation. This was a man that had been part of the London Transport workforce and even been door knocking for John McDonnell, but was now wondering whether Reform or Labour were right. Reform, I am told, were honest and not afraid of telling the truth and were not racist. He spoke of refugees and how they travelled across the continent and then mentioned Schengen. He asked me about it. I did not expect to be discussing Schengen on the doorstop a full eight years after the country decided not to join Schengen and leave the EU. But campaigns do this, they make people say things. I explained what I understood of Schengen and that we could not have been following the rules of Schengen as we were not part of it. I likened it to the Common Travel Area we have with Ireland. He was surprised. He did not know this. But he did not react badly to it, he did not act as if I was patronising him, he acted as if he did not know it and it was further information. The conversation continued, he was a nice guy that had suffered from a stroke, had suffered from “long covid” and was just happy to still be alive. I noted a “Griffin Park” sign and commented on Brentford FC and he joked about my accent for a Liverpool fan^[3] and we parted. It was a long talk and a reminder of why I usually run the board from an operational perspective but it was something that left me pleased and frustrated. I was hopeful that I had left a positive impression on him. But then I thought about what that meant. Would speaking to a non-white person who was speaking to them normally have had a positive impact on his view of all non-white people in some way? I have spoken of my feeling of “representative” status before (see fn7 of this Vietnam blog post) and how that can change people’s minds. I am always concerned about doing that the wrong way but could I also do it in the right direction? Should I have been doing this earlier?

I’ve had a recent conversation elsewhere about the pain of being a pioneer and “identity politics”. That someone so often has to take the hits so that others don’t have to and a phrase known among many second generation immigrants is that “they walked so that we could run”. But walking is hard.

3WR: Eye opening interaction

Result: Labour MP - Lee Barron

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001179

I hope that these vignettes have been somewhat enlightening for those unaware of the process. I would strongly suggest giving it a go once if you can. Although I am not always one of them, however much I “love a chat”^[4], many people do love these door knocking sessions and many of them had no idea that they would. I am not expecting there to be a General election soon but canvassing goes on around the year and around the country so maybe give it a go.

<sup>1. This closing down of the system, ostensibly to try to ensure that limited resources were applied effectively has been subject to some odd commentary about abandoning places. In the case of the Camden seat that I live in, there has been regular canvassing for years and a recent GLA election to give good data.↩
2. Her father was in the Ghibli Club that I sort of ran during part of the pandemic lockdown.↩
3. These things are somewhat related, and maybe not consciously. Football, for me, was a television thing for a long time. In the eighties, most Asian kids would not even dream of going to football because most Asian parents, correctly, would not even dare to dream it was a safe place. There was a part of me as I walked away thinking, “it is probably due to some other people that are currently voting Reform and were shouting racist abuse that I did not follow a club in London”. I used to be more bothered by the glory-hunter jibes but not so much now. ↩
4. I was told, somewhat recently, that I “love a chat” by a colleague and it has had an odd effect of making me question my self-image. I don’t think I do but other people have backed this up and, you know what? Maybe I do. I am aware that I am much more conversational on holiday than when I am not - and there is no real reason for this. If you know me, why not let me know if I do actually “love a chat” or not.↩</sup>